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Private sector downturn expected to worsen, CBI survey shows
By Benjamin Chiou
Date: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026
(Sharecast News) - Business conditions across the UK private sector are set to worsen in the coming months, according to the latest Growth Indicator survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).
The Growth Indicator, a long-running qualitative business measure of activity tracking output, sales and business volumes, showed that firms widely expect activity to fall over the next three months, with a net -25% predicting falls.
The net balance - calculated by the firms expecting an increase minus those forecasting declines - is now the weakest it's been since December, extending a period of below-zero balances that began in late-2024.
Private sector activity declined over the three months to April, with a net balance of -24% of firms reporting falls.
"Business' expectations for activity have weakened further, as companies continue to grapple with uneven trading conditions, strong cost pressures and renewed uncertainty," said the CBI's deputy economist Alpesh Paleja.
"These challenges have been exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, which is increasingly hitting a broad swathe of UK businesses. Our surveys suggest that the additional pressure on costs and supply chains is feeding through to pricing intentions - but not nearly enough to offset the burden facing firms."
Service-sector firms predict continued falls over the next three months (-22%), with declines in consumer services volumes (-15%), and business and professional services (-24%).
Meanwhile, a sharp decrease was predicted in distribution sales (-41%), along with modest decline in estimated manufacturing volumes (-20%).
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