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China inflation ticks higher, misses consensus
By Abigail Townsend
Date: Friday 10 Apr 2026
(Sharecast News) - Inflation in China edged higher in March, official data showed on Friday, although the pace of growth slowed.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index rose by 1% year-on-year, down on the 1.3% rise seen in January and below forecasts for a 1.2% increase.
Month-on-month, CPI fell 0.7%. Consensus had been for a smaller 0.2% month-on-month decline.
The slowdown was largely due to normal price declines following China's Lunar New Year holiday. Food prices dropped 2.7%, while tourism prices fell especially sharply, down 12.9% month-on-month, as the country returned to work.
In contrast, the producer price index rose 0.5% in March, the first positive print since September 2022, as cost pressures started to rise in the wake of conflict in the Middle East. The increase was narrowly ahead of consensus, for a 0.4% rise.
Patrick Munnelly, partner, market strategy at Tickmill Group, said: "While it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, this divergence hints at an intriguing dynamic: in China, the ripple effects of elevated oil prices appear to be filtering through to factory gates yet are finding little traction at the consumer level - likely a reflection of persistently soft demand."
Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China, at ING, said: "China has been locked in deflationary expectations for the past several years, with CPI inflation ending the last three years at 0.2% year-on-year or lower.
"Higher inflation in the near term could keep the People's Bank of China sidelined a little longer than expected, though growth is likely to outweigh inflation in the policymaking calculus.
"If domestic indicators continue to deteriorate, we don't think the recent reflation will prevent further rate cuts. Nonetheless, we moved our rate cut forecast from the second quarter to the third last month, with global central banks largely in a wait-and-see mode."
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